Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:10:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1821…f925
crypto · 531 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$35 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$95 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses302 / 228
Open positions1
Markets (closed)530 / 531
History coverage48d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 530 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days+$14
14 days−$31
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 64¢ 72¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$4 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$8 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 312 +0.4% -9.1% 59% 57% -8.9%
≤30d 480 -4.6% -13.6% 59% 54% -11.2%
≤90d 530 -7.5% -16.3% 57% 52% -12.2%
all 530 -7.5% -16.3% 57% 52% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 52% -12.2%
10% -24.3% 46% -20.6%
15% -31.6% 37% -28.3%
20% -38.3% 30% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.59 · official $4.26 · 1103 history records