Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x1821…968b sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,786 (-10%) realized −$4,604 · open −$182
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,390per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$462est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,689
7 days−$7,990
14 days−$14,975
30 days−$5,645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$10,510
other 46% −$13,700
crypto 5% −$2,205
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -75.0% -77.4% 0% 0% -93.4%
≤30d 27 +11.8% +1.1% 41% 41% -22.2%
≤90d 30 +6.6% -3.6% 40% 40% -19.8%
all 30 +6.6% -3.6% 40% 40% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 40% -19.8%
10% -12.8% 40% -27.5%
15% -21.2% 40% -34.5%
20% -28.9% 40% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$1,672) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +54% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,935 vs −$1,580 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized−$4,604
Unrealized−$182
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$462
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage40d
Avg bet$1,390
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 30¢ $500 $318 −$182 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,790 −$1,749 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5,000 −$4,939 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $634 −$1 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $1,323 −$1,300 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $150 +$355 +237%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $71 −$69 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,415 −$1,400 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $510 −$500 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1,696 −$1,672 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,730 −$1,700 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,518 −$1,500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,425 +$2,236 +157%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,219 +$1,177 +96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $999 +$620 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,016 +$1,112 +109%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,666 +$4,329 +260%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,214 +$2,392 +197%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $308 −$300 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,204 +$1,989 +165%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $525 −$505 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $2,002 −$1,965 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $790 +$1,252 +158%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $3,095 +$3,671 +119%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $7,249 −$7,124 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $562 +$1,445 +257%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $996 −$977 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $3,325 +$2,645 +80%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,258 −$1,237 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,790 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $4,979 29h
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will Croatia win o BUY 16¢ $8 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $632 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $634 5d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,323 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $505 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $150 11d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $71 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1,415 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 16¢ $508 11d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $510 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1,696 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,730 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,518 13d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY $5 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 28¢ $511 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $914 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,025 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 94¢ $2,396 15d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 61¢ $999 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1,219 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1,016 18d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 58¢ $3,303 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 60¢ $37 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.93 · official $307.51 · 127 history records