Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1825…a678 other 275 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$321 (-1%) realized −$254 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%256W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$51
14 days+$78
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$450
world 11% +$72
politics 9% −$76
sports 5% +$13
tech 3% +$18
culture 1% +$7
finance 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 10% -7.6%
≤30d 54 +3.7% -6.2% 98% 6% -7.3%
≤90d 206 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 4% -11.4%
all 270 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 5% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -11.0%
10% -17.7% 3% -19.5%
15% -25.6% 1% -27.3%
20% -32.9% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$64 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized−$254
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses256 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)270 / 275
History coverage114d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Yes 97¢ 76¢ $116 $92 −$25 (-21%)
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Yes 98¢ 93¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Will anyone say "Rick" 20+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? No 94¢ 58¢ $70 $43 −$27 (-38%)
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Yes 98¢ 77¢ $49 $39 −$10 (-21%)
Will anyone say "Alien" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? No 90¢ 82¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast say "Hunt" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 20 $196 +$4 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Win" or "Winner" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 20 $147 +$3 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Best" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $147 +$3 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $196 +$4 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Build" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $196 +$4 +2%
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In P Jun 20 $216 +$3 +2%
Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $157 +$2 +1%
Will "Regulatory" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcas Jun 20 $56 +$1 +2%
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $98 +$1 +1%
Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast Jun 20 $157 +$2 +1%
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca Jun 17 $249 +$6 +2%
Will "Iran" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc Jun 17 $141 +$4 +3%
Will "AI" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Sta Jun 17 $196 +$6 +3%
Will "Weather" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand P Jun 17 $196 +$6 +3%
Will "Pizza" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Will "Power" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $8 +$1 +14%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will anyone say "Evil" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $216 +$8 +4%
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $26 +$1 +4%
Will MrBeast say "Farm" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $98 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Best" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $98 +$3 +3%
Will MrBeast say "Build" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $98 +$3 +3%
Will MrBeast say "Darius" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $98 +$3 +3%
Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $98 +$3 +3%
Will MrBeast say "Fight" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $98 +$3 +3%
Will "Stupid" be in the headlines this week? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will "Reform" be in the headlines this week? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $138 +$10 +7%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $137 +$3 +2%
Will MrBeast say "MrBeast" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $137 +$5 +4%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $137 +$5 +4%
Will "Patreon" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? May 28 $26 +$2 +6%
Will "Mickey Mouse" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan E May 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Blockade" this week? May 24 $23 +$17 +73%
Will Trump say "Eagle" in May? May 24 $171 +$4 +2%
Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times on May 23 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "FBI" on Thursday? May 23 $143 +$5 +3%
Will "Disruptive" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcas May 23 $27 $0 +1%
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? May 23 $188 +$4 +2%
Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Epstein" on Thursday? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Pardon" on Thursday? May 22 $16 $0 +1%
Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Covid" on Thursday? May 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Six Seven" on Thursday? May 22 $25 $0 +1%
Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Trump" 5+ times on Thursday? May 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Laptop" on Thursday? May 22 $40 $0 +1%
Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Father" 5+ times on Thursday? May 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "China" on Thursday? May 22 $58 +$6 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will anyone say "Rick" 20+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 94¢ $70 10m
Will anyone say "Alien" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 90¢ $38 1h
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 97¢ $117 1h
Will MrBeast say "Hunt" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 4h
Will MrBeast say "Win" or "Winner" during his next gaming YouTube vide BUY Yes 98¢ $147 4h
Will MrBeast say "Build" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 4h
Will MrBeast say "Best" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 98¢ $147 4h
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide BUY Yes 98¢ $196 4h
Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 99¢ $109 22h
Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 98¢ $48 22h
Will "Regulatory" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcas BUY Yes 98¢ $56 22h
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In P BUY Yes 99¢ $119 22h
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 99¢ $76 22h
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In P BUY Yes 98¢ $12 22h
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In P BUY Yes 98¢ $15 22h
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In P BUY Yes 97¢ $15 22h
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In P BUY Yes 98¢ $55 22h
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 98¢ $22 22h
Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast BUY Yes 99¢ $157 22h
Will "Weather" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand P BUY Yes 97¢ $196 3d
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca BUY Yes 98¢ $131 3d
Will "AI" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Sta BUY Yes 97¢ $196 3d
Will "Iran" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc BUY Yes 97¢ $141 3d
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca BUY Yes 98¢ $98 3d
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca BUY Yes 96¢ $20 3d
Will "Power" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 87¢ $8 3d
Will "Pizza" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 81¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.36 · official $244.02 · 854 history records