Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x182b…f3d3
sports · 67 markets active 1d ago
0.0score
+$52,861 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,519 · open +$18,789
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$245,251
Realized−$5,519
Unrealized+$18,789
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,868
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage641d
Avg bet$16,802
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 1 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27,553
7 days+$30,701
14 days+$32,886
30 days−$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 78¢ $226,462 $245,251 +$18,789 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,750 $0 −$1,750 (-100%)
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Recrent Team - Game 1 Winner Nix Team 75¢ 0¢ $3,740 $0 −$3,740 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Xtreme Gaming 44¢ 0¢ $1,700 $0 −$1,700 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner PARIVISION 50¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Team Falcons 45¢ 0¢ $5,390 $0 −$5,390 (-100%)
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BetBoom Team 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: Miposhka Team vs SoloTeam - Game 2 Winner Miposhka Team 62¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Team Spirit 48¢ 0¢ $8,012 $0 −$8,012 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Virtus.pro 48¢ 0¢ $3,650 $0 −$3,650 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Team Spirit 48¢ 0¢ $4,800 $0 −$4,800 (-100%)
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner PlayTime 34¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Team Falcons 53¢ 0¢ $8,970 $0 −$8,970 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Team Liquid 63¢ 0¢ $3,557 $0 −$3,557 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $77,960 +$27,553 +35%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $12,601 +$3,148 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5,110 +$2,185 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $74,687 +$3,424 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $211,004 +$12,996 +6%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $7,243 −$2,134 -30%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 23 $9,067 −$8,970 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 23 $5,423 −$5,390 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $8,084 −$8,012 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 23 $4,822 −$4,800 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 23 $1,197 +$1,728 +144%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $3,000 +$1,995 +66%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 23 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $2,545 +$2,955 +116%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,750 −$1,750 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $1,225 +$2,275 +186%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 22 $3,199 +$2,572 +80%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 22 $2,004 −$3 -0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 22 $1,530 −$1,500 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $1,729 −$1,700 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 22 $1,580 +$1,797 +114%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Recrent Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Grou May 22 $54 +$48 +90%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $20,332 +$10,943 +54%
Dota 2: Miposhka Team vs SoloTeam - Game 2 Winner May 21 $1,517 −$1,500 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 20 $2,204 +$1,545 +70%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $15,363 +$7,222 +47%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $3,560 −$3,557 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $3,707 −$3,650 -98%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Recrent Team - Game 1 Winner May 20 $3,740 −$3,740 -100%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) May 20 $8,118 −$393 -5%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 20 $4,410 −$4,410 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 20 $6,500 −$6,500 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 20 $20,069 −$20,069 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs May 20 $17,705 −$17,705 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $26,103 +$3,573 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 19 $4,939 +$2,719 +55%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $17,670 +$8,369 +47%
Dota 2: Travoman Team vs Miposhka Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battl May 19 $26 +$9 +35%
Dota 2: Travoman Team vs Miposhka Team - Game 2 Winner May 19 $990 +$510 +52%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 16 $29,448 +$8,363 +28%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 13 $15,028 −$2,917 -19%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 23 $30,741 −$18,069 -59%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $65,262 +$3,646 +6%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $12,578 +$7,831 +62%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $6,501 +$201 +3%
Will Donald Trump say "million" 10 or more times during his North Caro Sep 22 $1,593 −$1,593 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his North Carolina rall Sep 22 $1,915 −$1,908 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 58% +$32,727
sports 21% −$39,576
politics 10% +$26,350
other 7% +$11,426
economics 3% −$18,045
tech 0% +$389
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $6,309 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $2 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $1 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $49 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $104 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $10 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $5 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $5 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $5 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $5 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $556 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $18 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $112 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $495 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $8 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $14 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $4 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $10 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $4 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $162 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $7,921 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $18 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $7 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $4 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $12 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $877 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $14 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $0 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +30.2% +17.8% 100% 100% +21.1%
≤30d 41 -15.9% -23.9% 49% 44% -9.6%
≤90d 41 -15.9% -23.9% 49% 44% -9.6%
all 66 -10.1% -18.6% 48% 41% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 41% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 38% -18.8%
15% -33.5% 32% -26.6%
20% -40.1% 24% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245,250.95 · official $245,250.95 (match) · 1573 history records