Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
18 0x182c…64d3 other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+16%) realized +$41 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$41
sports 27% +$38
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +34.8% +21.9% 31% 31% +33.8%
≤30d 35 +34.8% +21.9% 31% 31% +33.8%
≤90d 35 +34.8% +21.9% 31% 31% +33.8%
all 35 +34.8% +21.9% 31% 31% +33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.9% 31% +33.8%
10% ← realistic here +10.3% 31% +21.0%
15% -0.4% 31% +9.3%
20% -10.2% 31% -1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +104% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)35 / 49
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 11¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 9¢ 8¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 17¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Japan score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Over 24¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +112%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$32 +318%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 +$19 +482%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $3 +$34 +1134%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +104%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +128%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$10 +503%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$9 +89%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +236%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$29 +287%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $2 +$5 +225%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $7 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 9¢ $7 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 2h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 46¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $16 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 92¢ $14 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 5h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 43¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.55 · official $61.92 (match) · 82 history records