Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:55:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x182f…c8cb crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-4%) realized −$3 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -13.4% -21.6% 65% 47% -13.5%
≤30d 17 -13.4% -21.6% 65% 47% -13.5%
≤90d 17 -13.4% -21.6% 65% 47% -13.5%
all 17 -13.4% -21.6% 65% 47% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 47% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 29% -21.8%
15% -36.0% 18% -29.3%
20% -42.3% 18% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 72¢ 48¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.90 · official $16.56 · 74 history records