Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1833…dd2b other 36 markets active 6d ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$110 (-67%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%31W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$111
other 12% −$1
politics 11% +$2
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 12% -1.1%
≤90d 19 -4.1% -13.2% 95% 5% -8.0%
all 33 -5.2% -14.2% 94% 3% -71.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 3% -71.6%
10% -22.4% 0% -74.3%
15% -29.9% 0% -76.8%
20% -36.8% 0% -79.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$56 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses31 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage135d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $9 +$2 +17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Zizou Bergs vs Jenson Brooksby Feb 28 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 8? Feb 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 8? Feb 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 8? Feb 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 08 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 62d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 62d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 62d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 62d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 62d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 62d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 62d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.15 · official $3.15 (match) · 128 history records