Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x1838…4e9a crypto 399 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$255 (+16%) realized +$257 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%244W / 153L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$73
14 days+$73
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% +$174
crypto 46% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 +9.0% -1.4% 62% 62% -0.3%
≤30d 252 +7.0% -3.2% 60% 60% +1.7%
≤90d 397 +6.6% -3.5% 61% 61% +4.6%
all 397 +6.6% -3.5% 61% 61% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 61% +4.6%
10% -12.8% 60% -5.4%
15% -21.2% 57% -14.6%
20% -28.9% 48% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$257
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses244 / 153
Open positions2
Markets (closed)397 / 399
History coverage61d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 57¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 60¢ 38¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 153 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.28 · official $4.78 (match) · 746 history records