Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1839…c1b5 politics 86 markets active 11h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%9W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$6
other 31% −$10
sports 11% −$2
economics 6% $0
crypto 4% −$2
culture 4% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.8% -21.1% 25% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 8 -18.9% -26.6% 25% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 9 -16.9% -24.8% 22% 0% -10.8%
all 84 -11.0% -19.5% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 0% -9.9%
10% -27.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -34.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -40.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses9 / 75
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage356d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -38%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $166 −$1 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $35 −$4 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 8? May 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $59 $0 -1%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 10 $57 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $57 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $113 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 29 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 27 $1 $0 -13%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $116 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16? Jan 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 5? Jan 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $59 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $2 $0 -14%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 24 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 23 $59 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $183 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $58 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 07 $1 $0 -33%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 07 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $1 $0 -11%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 28 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 27 $59 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will Lot 7 Henri Matisse’s “Figure décorative” sell for 15m or more? Nov 21 $62 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 17 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $254 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 11h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY No 100¢ $37 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 12d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $1 17d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 17d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 21d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 33d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 102d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 102d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $3 103d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 103d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 108d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 115d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 123d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $57 128d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $57 131d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $57 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.88 · official $51.88 (match) · 354 history records