Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x1839…3ad3 sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$236 (+4%) realized +$241 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%43W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$662
7 days+$955
14 days+$989
30 days+$989
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$121
other 25% +$509
tech 1% +$23
politics 1% −$42
world 1% −$20
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +30.6% +18.2% 62% 62% +21.0%
≤30d 36 +27.5% +15.3% 61% 61% +19.5%
≤90d 41 +11.9% +1.3% 54% 54% +7.4%
all 81 +2.9% -6.9% 53% 53% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 53% -0.1%
10% -15.8% 53% -9.6%
15% -23.9% 51% -18.4%
20% -31.4% 42% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$55 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized+$241
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses43 / 38
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 89
History coverage202d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ 60¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-2%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$92 +91%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$92 +46%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $71 −$70 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Jun 23 $51 +$141 +276%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $69 +$120 +172%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $102 +$161 +158%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $152 +$111 +73%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 23 $71 −$12 -17%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $71 −$2 -2%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$65 +65%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $159 +$107 +67%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $102 +$116 +114%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$32 +62%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$35 +68%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $185 +$130 +70%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 +$42 +83%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $41 +$102 +248%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 +$22 +44%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $71 +$50 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$81 +158%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Mar 28 $115 −$115 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5 Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Nets vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5 Mar 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 126.5 Mar 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Mar 26 $60 +$55 +92%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Alicante: Edas Butvilas vs Jesper de Jong Mar 25 $50 +$46 +92%
Etcheverry vs. Paul: Match O/U 21.5 Mar 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $100 +$35 +35%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 25 $100 +$43 +43%
Etcheverry vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5 Mar 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5) Mar 24 $150 +$93 +62%
Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5 Mar 24 $50 +$44 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bra BUY 25¢ $51 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 47¢ $102 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $152 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL 99¢ $194 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 51¢ $101 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 23h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 23h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $102 24h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 26h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $71 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Spread: England ( BUY 36¢ $102 33h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 43h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) SELL Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $59 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $69 45h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 61¢ $69 46h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $152 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $71 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 61¢ $71 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will BUY 26¢ $51 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $159 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $102 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $71 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 92¢ $82 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $85 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.39 · official $395.39 · 173 history records