Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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18 0x183a…d514 sports 299 markets active 2h ago coverage 591d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Covers last 590d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19,564 (-2%) realized −$19,073 · open −$491
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%163W / 127L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,363per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 591d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$55,741
politics 36% −$87,553
sports 5% −$1,332
tech 4% −$6,020
other 1% −$889
weather 0% +$167
crypto 0% −$163
economics 0% −$48
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +28.3% +16.1% 55% 50% +2.0%
≤30d 25 +14.0% +3.1% 48% 44% -10.2%
≤90d 33 +10.7% +0.1% 48% 36% -10.8%
all 290 +3.5% -6.4% 56% 45% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 45% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 37% -21.3%
15% -23.5% 31% -28.9%
20% -31.0% 28% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$981) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$593 vs −$1,090 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$2,268
Realized−$19,073
Unrealized−$491
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses163 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions9
Markets (closed)290 / 299
History coverage591d ⚠
Avg bet$3,363
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $577 $591 +$14 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 51¢ 62¢ $294 $360 +$66 (+23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $200 $245 +$45 (+22%)
Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 55¢ 76¢ $173 $238 +$66 (+38%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 54¢ 52¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 26¢ 4¢ $861 $148 −$713 (-83%)
Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 35¢ 56¢ $54 $87 +$33 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$91 +90%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$161 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$332 +324%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $590 −$191 -32%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 25 $2,491 +$382 +15%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 24 $380 −$6 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $250 −$159 -64%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $390 −$310 -80%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $325 −$286 -88%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $45,545 −$1,070 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $25,635 +$217 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $20,886 −$5,415 -26%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 07 $550 −$79 -14%
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? Apr 02 $4,454 +$341 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $29,946 −$852 -3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $12,106 +$4,765 +39%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Mar 23 $699 +$8 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 10 $5,259 +$318 +6%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $724 −$97 -13%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $2,012 −$239 -12%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 07 $2,900 +$780 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 06 $3,794 −$1,081 -28%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 05 $329 +$197 +60%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $700 −$400 -57%
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Mar 04 $2,910 −$1,339 -46%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 04 $2,460 +$450 +18%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 04 $750 +$221 +30%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $80 +$17 +22%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 03 $760 +$224 +29%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 03 $853 +$168 +20%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $2,159 +$46 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $9,307 +$5,165 +56%
Iran strike on US military by February 28? Mar 01 $910 +$90 +10%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $1,337 −$418 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $101 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $101 1h
Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 19h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $101 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 19h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $577 40h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 46h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $102 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 2d
Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $54 2d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $101 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 2d
Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $434 3d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $102 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $399 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,267.50 · official $2,267.52 (match) · 3500 history records