Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x183b…b6e9 sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$422 (-9%) realized −$414 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%44W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$224
7 days−$420
14 days−$317
30 days−$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$431
other 1% −$37
world 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -7.3% -16.2% 52% 48% -28.3%
≤30d 52 -0.7% -10.1% 62% 60% -19.9%
≤90d 78 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 55% -18.1%
all 78 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 55% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 55% -18.1%
10% -22.0% 47% -26.0%
15% -29.5% 35% -33.1%
20% -36.5% 21% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$38 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$414
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses44 / 34
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions4
Markets (closed)78 / 82
History coverage89d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 41¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $11 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $38 +$30 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $299 −$261 -87%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $41 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 +$22 +112%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$18 +72%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $49 +$27 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $400 −$52 -13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $151 +$37 +24%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 +$15 +30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $100 +$22 +22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$24 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $40 +$18 +44%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $20 +$6 +31%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $20 +$21 +105%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $40 +$10 +26%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $40 +$25 +62%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $40 +$18 +46%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $40 +$16 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $41 +$52 +129%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $40 +$18 +44%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $81 +$23 +29%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10 +$6 +58%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $20 +$7 +32%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $20 +$10 +51%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $40 +$14 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL Bebop 50¢ $10 40m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 51¢ $5 1h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) SELL SPARTA 49¢ $0 1h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) SELL SPARTA 49¢ $30 1h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 31¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 50¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 47¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 42¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 41¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 42¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 54¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 47¢ $2 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 22h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 57¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 55¢ $38 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $38 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $299 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 74¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 79¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 64¢ $49 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 69¢ $348 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $400 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.18 · official $25.22 (match) · 164 history records