Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x183d…685f other 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 408d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$114 (-1%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%45W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$9
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$68
other 37% −$32
politics 7% −$2
crypto 7% −$10
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.3% -8.4% 18% 9% -9.0%
≤30d 31 -6.9% -15.7% 32% 3% -10.6%
≤90d 33 -9.5% -18.1% 30% 3% -10.4%
all 128 -6.0% -14.9% 35% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 3% -10.5%
10% -23.1% 1% -19.1%
15% -30.5% 1% -26.9%
20% -37.3% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

408d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses45 / 83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage408d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $95 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $85 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $279 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $84 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $168 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $84 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $83 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $83 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$5 +13%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,093 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $217 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $79 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $79 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $349 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $293 +$2 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $268 −$10 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $85 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $86 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $80 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $163 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $260 −$61 -23%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $135 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $89 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $65 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $97 −$4 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $2 $0 -7%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $1,093 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Dec 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $16 $0 -1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 27 $36 −$6 -17%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 26 $0 $0 +22%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 19 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $93 12m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $93 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $25 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $85 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $85 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $85 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $67 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $17 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $85 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $85 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $76 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $82 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $84 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $68 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $84 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $42 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $42 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $84 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $83 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $83 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.00 (match) · 563 history records