Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
18 0x1841…78fa weather 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$96 (+17%) realized +$72 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%106W / 99L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$67
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 +16.6% +5.5% 50% 48% +2.4%
≤30d 205 +16.8% +5.7% 52% 48% +1.4%
≤90d 205 +16.8% +5.7% 52% 48% +1.4%
all 205 +16.8% +5.7% 52% 48% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.7% 48% +1.4%
10% ← realistic here -4.4% 44% -8.3%
15% -13.6% 27% -17.2%
20% -22.1% 15% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses106 / 99
Open positions42
Markets (closed)205 / 247
History coverage12d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 24¢ $1 $17 +$15 (+1112%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+614%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 97¢ $1 $9 +$7 (+593%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 14¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+337%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? No 65¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? No 66¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? No 76¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 77¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? No 72¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 14¢ 36¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+154%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? No 70¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? No 66¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? No 67¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 78¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? No 73¢ 66¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? No 80¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? No 59¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? No 79¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? No 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? No 74¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 74¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? No 80¢ 87¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 50¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +91%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +230%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$21 +1265%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$32 +2706%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +643%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 79¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 7¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 61¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.64 · official $99.63 (match) · 359 history records