Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x1842…4a7d crypto 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%51W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$3
14 days+$106
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$161
sports 44% +$85
crypto 10% +$72
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -30.5% -37.1% 31% 31% -10.3%
≤30d 30 -7.7% -16.5% 43% 43% +4.4%
≤90d 45 -17.6% -25.5% 36% 36% +3.2%
all 177 -2.8% -12.1% 29% 27% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 27% -15.1%
10% -20.5% 26% -23.3%
15% -28.2% 24% -30.7%
20% -35.2% 21% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses51 / 126
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)177 / 178
History coverage175d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 100¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+122%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $99 +$40 +40%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $30 −$29 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $7 −$6 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 25 $4 +$8 +196%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $50 +$44 +89%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $11 −$10 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$12 +237%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$10 -50%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $59 +$2 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $50 −$45 -90%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +95%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$25 +124%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $24 −$17 -70%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $35 +$32 +93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $8 +$10 +132%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 +$48 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$111 +109%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $8 +$13 +156%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $8 −$4 -48%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 12 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Apr 10 $4 +$6 +162%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$5 +99%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $20 +$12 +61%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 59¢ $30 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $99 6h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $7 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 11h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 11h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $21 29h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $94 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $50 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $11 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $17 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $10 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $4 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $4 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 59¢ $55 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 7d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $50 7d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 5¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.21 · official $22.21 (match) · 414 history records