Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1846…a932
other · 2354 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$4 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$119 · open +$114
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$146
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses8 / 372
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions288
Markets (closed)380 / 2354
History coverage207d
Avg bet$1,684
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 288 History 380 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days−$114
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? Yes 0¢ 97¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+96850%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+99900%)
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49850%)
Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2? Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49850%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49850%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Even 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49850%)
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49850%)
Set Handicap: Zidansek (-1.5) vs Friedsam (+1.5) Zidansek 0¢ 49¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49349%)
StarCraft II: Cure vs sOs - Map 1 Winner sOs 0¢ 49¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49299%)
Counter-Strike: BRAWLSTARS vs Clutchain Female (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Clutchain Female 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$3 (+49900%)
Counter-Strike: Nerve of Cow vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Nerve of Cow 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$3 (+49900%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja: Completed Match: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Katarina Kujovic No 0¢ 49¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49350%)
ITF Gaborone: Tanisha Kashyap vs D'Estree Colalancia DEstree Colalancia 0¢ 49¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49299%)
Friedsam vs. Zidansek: Match O/U 21.5 Over 0¢ 46¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+45999%)
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 2? Under 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Even 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Valorant: TEC Esports vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner TEC Esports 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Even 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49400%)
ITF Klagenfurt: Dominik Recek vs Justas Trainauskas Justas Trainauskas 0¢ 49¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49350%)
Duncan/Ribero vs. Bianchi/Sheehy: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Under 0¢ 48¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+47950%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+653%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lauren Babb Tomlinson advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Michael Stansfield advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Amy Phan West advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 10? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 11? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 11? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will James Lally be the Democratic nominee for NV-03? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 10? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 9? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will "The Balusters" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mac Meissner finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournam Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nicolas Echavarria finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial T Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Aaron Rai finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournament Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sahith Theegala finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tour Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 8? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 8? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$61
politics 0% −$16
economics 0% +$3
culture 0% +$2
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
sports 0% +$62
finance 0% +$6
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Gavira be the next President of Andalusia following the re BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will Iván Cepeda win between 30% and 35% of votes in the first round o BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will CD Real Tomayapo win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 3.4% and 3.6 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 3.7% and 3.9 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Altimont Wilks be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Iván Cepeda win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round o BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will SpaceX IPO on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will SpaceX IPO on June 30, 2026 or later? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 13h
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 15h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 15h
Will Iván Cepeda win between 45% and 50% of votes in the first round o BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be 4.0% or higher? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
First Blood in Game 2? BUY PlayTime 0¢ $0 18h
Will SpaceX IPO on June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will SpaceX IPO on June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will PPI YoY be at least 8.0% in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-88.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -85.7% -87.1% 1% 1% -91.6%
≤30d 196 -88.8% -89.8% 1% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 196 -88.8% -89.8% 1% 1% -9.5%
all 380 -87.1% -88.3% 2% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -88.3% 1% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -89.4% 1% -18.2%
15% -90.4% 1% -26.1%
20% -91.4% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.93 · official $143.86 · 3500 history records