Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1850…1015 other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,017 (-1%) realized −$2,017 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate22%26W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,256per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$24
14 days−$26
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$240
politics 32% −$60
sports 17% −$1,726
world 5% −$4
economics 3% −$6
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$2
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 -15.3% -23.4% 6% 2% -12.0%
all 120 -2.7% -11.9% 22% 8% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 8% -10.7%
10% -20.4% 8% -19.3%
15% -28.1% 7% -27.1%
20% -35.1% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,669) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$28 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized−$2,017
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses26 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,256
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $417 $417 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $2,371 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,611 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,466 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $6,006 −$7 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,485 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,325 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,993 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,330 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $625 +$2 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $984 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $747 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,414 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $1,503 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 19 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,620 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $2,786 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 01 $794 +$2 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $3,296 −$4 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,324 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $5,201 −$5 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,429 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,553 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,449 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,334 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,361 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,806 −$3 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $2,494 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,336 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,270 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,772 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $351 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $4,026 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $417 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $418 5h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $419 7h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,049 25h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 27h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $874 28h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $874 30h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $895 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $896 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,609 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,611 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,608 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,611 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,604 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,606 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,532 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,534 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,590 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,592 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,323 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,325 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,319 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,320 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,506 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,508 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,385 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,387 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,328 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,330 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,318 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.76 · official $416.76 (match) · 343 history records