Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
18 0x1851…7016 other 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$555 · open +$519
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%116W / 72L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$12,227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$106
14 days+$280
30 days+$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$808
world 22% −$1,464
sports 18% −$642
weather 10% +$60
finance 5% +$112
politics 4% −$53
crypto 3% +$826
tech 1% +$71
culture 0% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +30.6% +18.2% 100% 100% +18.2%
≤30d 19 +53.4% +38.8% 58% 47% +1.2%
≤90d 158 +22.0% +10.4% 63% 54% -11.3%
all 188 +17.1% +5.9% 62% 52% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 52% -10.5%
10% -4.2% 36% -19.1%
15% -13.5% 23% -26.9%
20% -21.9% 16% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$188 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$12,227
Realized−$555
Unrealized+$519
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses116 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions14
Markets (closed)188 / 202
History coverage107d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 84¢ 92¢ $7,092 $7,724 +$632 (+9%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 68¢ $1,685 $1,528 −$157 (-9%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $1,335 $1,382 +$47 (+3%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $341 $352 +$10 (+3%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $340 $350 +$10 (+3%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $380 $342 −$38 (-10%)
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $245 $254 +$9 (+4%)
Will DR Congo go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 69¢ 66¢ $168 $163 −$6 (-3%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 54¢ $44 $54 +$10 (+22%)
Will Japan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 86¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $348 +$106 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $104 +$173 +166%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $104 +$109 +105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $107 +$1,294 +1215%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $103 −$100 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $104 +$163 +156%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 25 $206 +$42 +20%
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 4.5 May 23 $103 −$43 -42%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5 May 23 $400 −$391 -98%
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5 May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5 May 23 $604 −$594 -98%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 23 $931 +$37 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 21? May 22 $128 +$23 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 21? May 22 $174 +$25 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $343 +$12 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $303 +$71 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $201 +$26 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 20? May 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 20? May 20 $101 +$21 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 20? May 20 $172 +$42 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 21? May 20 $233 −$232 -99%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 20 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $6,023 +$873 +14%
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5) Apr 18 $555 −$544 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $500 +$55 +11%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $503 −$499 -99%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $522 −$520 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $510 +$515 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $392 +$108 +28%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 17 $310 +$190 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 15? Apr 16 $0 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 15 Apr 16 $3 +$3 +127%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $203 +$74 +36%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 16 $238 −$233 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $200 +$56 +28%
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 14 $281 +$122 +43%
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-Apr Apr 14 $4,082 −$3,771 -92%
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12 Apr 14 $109 +$32 +29%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 14? Apr 14 $112 +$22 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 14? Apr 14 $99 −$98 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 14 $44 +$44 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 13 Apr 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 13 $450 +$170 +38%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $186 +$111 +60%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $440 +$12 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 69¢ $170 1h
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 74¢ $83 1h
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 73¢ $165 1h
Will Japan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 66¢ $37 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 10d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $19 10d
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 76¢ $348 10d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 13d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 14d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,247 16d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 73¢ $44 16d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 73¢ $55 16d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $343 17d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $75 18d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,622 18d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $343 18d
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $382 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? BUY No 63¢ $103 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 50¢ $95 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 47¢ $104 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 36¢ $104 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY No $107 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY No 37¢ $104 19d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $2,280 23d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $266 23d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $79 23d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $982 25d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY No 83¢ $34 27d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY No 83¢ $19 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,226.89 · official $12,226.89 (match) · 689 history records