Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1852…10b1 crypto 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,027 (-5%) realized −$2,022 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate64%150W / 85L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$73
14 days−$57
30 days−$741
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$2,280
other 30% −$384
sports 5% +$453
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.6% -7.2% 67% 56% -12.7%
≤30d 55 -16.4% -24.4% 49% 44% -24.1%
≤90d 132 -17.1% -25.0% 48% 45% -27.9%
all 235 -3.8% -12.9% 64% 48% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 48% -14.8%
10% -21.3% 43% -22.9%
15% -28.9% 36% -30.4%
20% -35.9% 26% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$100 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$576
Realized−$2,022
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses150 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage578d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 61¢ 60¢ $581 $576 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $522 −$522 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $274 −$54 -20%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $71 +$39 +56%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $551 +$198 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $45 +$15 +33%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $522 +$250 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $24 +$16 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$51 +224%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $34 +$14 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $76 +$56 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $213 +$110 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 02 $32 +$24 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 01 $29 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 01 $32 −$23 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 01 $37 +$23 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 01 $54 +$43 +81%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 01 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 01 $57 −$20 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 01 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 01 $45 −$45 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 31 $14 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 31 $46 +$29 +63%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 31 $25 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 29 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 29 $61 −$59 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 29 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $31 +$19 +60%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 28 $62 +$35 +56%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 27 $53 +$44 +84%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 27 $65 −$65 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 27 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 27 $67 +$50 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 27 $56 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 27 $75 −$72 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 27 $48 +$30 +63%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 27 $62 −$45 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 27 $75 +$59 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 27 $50 −$45 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 27 $68 +$55 +81%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 27 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 27 $73 +$49 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $588 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $522 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $200 8h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 64¢ $71 13h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $10 20h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $23 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $13 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 64¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $16 20h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 74¢ $58 23h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 74¢ $370 23h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 74¢ $7 23h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 74¢ $82 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $61 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $16 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $253 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.99 · official $575.99 (match) · 1923 history records