Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x1853…17be other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$747 (+13%) realized −$250 · open +$997
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$5,191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$173
7 days−$4
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$676
sports 14% +$397
world 2% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 53% -9.8%
≤30d 16 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 50% -9.1%
≤90d 16 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 50% -9.1%
all 16 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 50% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 50% -9.1%
10% -22.7% 44% -17.8%
15% -30.2% 25% -25.7%
20% -37.0% 25% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$66 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$5,191
Realized−$250
Unrealized+$997
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage14d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 55¢ $2,800 $3,494 +$694 (+25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,000 $1,338 +$338 (+34%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 42¢ 20¢ $75 $36 −$38 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $142 −$67 -47%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $84 +$17 +21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$60 -59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$54 +53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $59 +$45 +76%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $101 −$42 -41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $98 +$32 +32%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$31 +30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 14 $141 −$141 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $84 +$84 +101%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $154 +$169 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $129 +$12 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $76 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $75 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $142 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $101 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $42 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $84 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $156 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $127 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $59 9h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 44¢ $59 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $29 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $101 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $98 24h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $131 24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $101 26h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $168 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $84 29h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $25 32h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $120 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $154 3d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $814 4d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $2,033 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 32¢ $141 13d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 91¢ $129 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,190.92 · official $5,197.21 (match) · 52 history records