Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
18 0x1853…6c81 crypto 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$455 (-19%) realized −$436 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate29%36W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$151
14 days−$206
30 days−$473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$188
weather 13% −$89
other 13% −$202
sports 11% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -19.9% -27.6% 43% 43% -35.9%
≤30d 124 -21.2% -28.7% 29% 20% -28.6%
≤90d 124 -21.2% -28.7% 29% 20% -28.6%
all 124 -21.2% -28.7% 29% 20% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 20% -28.6%
10% -35.5% 18% -35.4%
15% -41.8% 15% -41.7%
20% -47.5% 10% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$436
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses36 / 88
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage19d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 24¢ $38 $19 −$19 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jonathan David: 3+ goals Jun 18 $48 +$7 +15%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $86 +$24 +28%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 −$18 -59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $113 −$112 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 +$15 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $21 +$9 +44%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $11 −$10 -91%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $21 +$29 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $21 +$9 +46%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $65 −$63 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$19 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$9 +85%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$3 -87%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $46 −$35 -76%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 −$3 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$20 +383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 05 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin above 60,400 on June 5, 12PM ET? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $38 1h
Jonathan David: 3+ goals SELL Yes 55¢ $28 20h
Jonathan David: 3+ goals SELL Yes 55¢ $28 20h
Jonathan David: 3+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $48 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 23h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $86 47h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 17¢ $13 47h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $30 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $21 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $4 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $6 2d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $18 3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $2 3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $1 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $21 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $29 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.80 · official $18.80 (match) · 289 history records