Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:36:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
18 0x1854…2106 politics 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$32 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$5
world 23% +$4
crypto 8% +$6
weather 7% −$10
sports 3% −$3
other 3% −$21
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.4% -2.9% 33% 33% -58.6%
≤30d 7 +8.0% -2.3% 43% 43% -52.6%
≤90d 7 +8.0% -2.3% 43% 43% -52.6%
all 38 -1.6% -10.9% 34% 21% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 21% -12.1%
10% -19.5% 16% -20.5%
15% -27.2% 16% -28.2%
20% -34.4% 13% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage530d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? No 62¢ 60¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? Yes 68¢ 84¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 20? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +222%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$7 +185%
Lakers vs. Suns Feb 28 $5 +$8 +178%
Spurs vs. Raptors Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Feb 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Feb 25 $14 +$10 +72%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026 Feb 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 18? Feb 19 $16 +$8 +52%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Dec 28 $257 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $260 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $258 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $240 in October? Nov 04 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? Nov 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Oct 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 08 $19 +$4 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 08 $15 $0 -3%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 05 $19 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Oct 05 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 02 $25 $0 -1%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 29 $18 −$2 -14%
Will Solana reach $260 September 15-21? Sep 19 $28 +$3 +12%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 14 $14 $0 -3%
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 13 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? Apr 11 $5 $0 -6%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 07 $8 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 -9%
Yoon reinstated as President before July? Mar 25 $6 $0 +5%
Doge ETF approved by July 31? Jan 14 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Lions win the NFC Championship? Jan 14 $5 $0 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Jan 09 $4 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 62¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 31h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 13d
Lakers vs. Suns BUY Suns 36¢ $5 116d
Spurs vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 31¢ $3 117d
Trail Blazers vs. Suns BUY Trail Blazers 58¢ $14 120d
Cavaliers vs. Thunder BUY Cavaliers 53¢ $19 121d
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026 BUY No 50¢ $6 123d
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 18? BUY No 66¢ $16 125d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $257 176d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $257 176d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $260 176d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $260 176d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $258 176d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $258 176d
Will Solana reach $240 in October? BUY No 99¢ $5 236d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $6 236d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? BUY No 99¢ $11 236d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $23 257d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 257d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 257d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 257d
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? SELL Yes 66¢ $19 260d
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 260d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.07 · official $42.76 · 84 history records