Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1856…dc42 sports 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%19W / 129L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$21
other 26% −$7
politics 19% +$2
crypto 10% $0
culture 7% −$9
economics 5% −$2
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.5%
all 148 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses19 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage159d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $476 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $54 $0 -1%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $167 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 23 $559 +$9 +2%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 23 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $175 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 22 $497 +$2 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $163 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 21 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 21 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $171 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $208 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $167 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $166 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $158 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $163 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $321 +$1 +0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $167 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $165 −$3 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 18 $168 +$2 +1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $334 −$2 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $170 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $161 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 14 $163 −$2 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 13 $163 −$1 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $171 −$1 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 12 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 12 $176 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 12 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $222 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 11 $181 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $384 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 10 $175 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $171 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 09 $382 −$7 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 07 $242 −$2 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $386 −$3 -1%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 06 $187 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $54 7d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $55 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $60 21d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $61 21d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $54 32d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $54 33d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 97¢ $166 84d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 97¢ $167 84d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $178 84d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $178 85d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $168 85d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $168 85d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $169 85d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 94¢ $160 86d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 96¢ $164 86d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $164 86d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $167 86d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $167 86d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $165 86d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $165 86d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 93¢ $161 87d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 94¢ $162 87d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $163 87d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $17 87d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $146 87d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $170 87d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $171 87d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $165 87d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $165 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.68 · official $42.68 (match) · 566 history records