Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:52:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x185a…8050 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$2
other 33% +$2
politics 14% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 21% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 21% 0% -8.8%
all 41 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage275d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $55 +$3 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $53 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $1 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $66 +$2 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Jan 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Dec 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 13 $26 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Sep 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $19 $0 -2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Sep 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $52 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $58 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $55 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $55 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $55 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $18 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $53 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $53 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.49 · official $52.49 (match) · 113 history records