Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x185c…d387 crypto 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$6 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate51%94W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$44
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$83
other 2% −$8
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +28.1% +15.9% 71% 43% +4.3%
≤30d 183 -9.3% -17.9% 51% 34% -15.1%
≤90d 183 -9.3% -17.9% 51% 34% -15.1%
all 183 -9.3% -17.9% 51% 34% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 34% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 23% -23.3%
15% -32.9% 15% -30.7%
20% -39.5% 9% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses94 / 89
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)183 / 186
History coverage16d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +190%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 01 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $21 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 01 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 01 $15 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 01 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 01 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 01 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 01 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $23 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 01 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 01 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 01 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 01 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 01 $13 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$5 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $4 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.84 · official $1.84 (match) · 767 history records