Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x1863…f356 crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+10%) realized +$35 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%28W / 16L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day96.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +4.7% -5.2% 64% 52% +1.5%
≤30d 44 +4.7% -5.2% 64% 52% +1.5%
≤90d 44 +4.7% -5.2% 64% 52% +1.5%
all 44 +4.7% -5.2% 64% 52% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 52% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 43% -8.2%
15% -22.6% 36% -17.1%
20% -30.2% 30% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses28 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day96.0
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 25¢ 96¢ $10 $39 +$29 (+287%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$16 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$8 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$28 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$50 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.66 · official $12.22 · 160 history records