Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1867…da15 crypto 618 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate84%521W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$8
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$7
sports 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 607 +0.5% -9.1% 85% 28% -9.3%
≤30d 618 -0.2% -9.7% 84% 28% -9.7%
≤90d 618 -0.2% -9.7% 84% 28% -9.7%
all 618 -0.2% -9.7% 84% 28% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 28% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 17% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 11% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses521 / 97
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)618 / 618
History coverage13d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 618 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1465 history records