Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x186b…8567 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$494 (-48%) realized −$497 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$435
crypto 6% −$58
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -41.4% -47.0% 27% 27% -58.6%
≤30d 11 -41.4% -47.0% 27% 27% -58.6%
≤90d 11 -41.4% -47.0% 27% 27% -58.6%
all 11 -41.4% -47.0% 27% 27% -58.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.0% 27% -58.6%
10% -52.1% 27% -62.5%
15% -56.7% 27% -66.1%
20% -61.0% 27% -69.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$90 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$497
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 30¢ 30¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $55 +$47 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $46 +$63 +137%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $94 +$114 +121%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $37 −$36 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $194 −$191 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $234 −$229 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 16¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $81 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $66 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $102 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $55 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 2¢ $12 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $109 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 41¢ $46 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $59 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $209 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $94 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 56¢ $37 28h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 38¢ $19 28h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $194 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 23¢ $234 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 32¢ $99 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 52¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.27 · official $112.27 · 18 history records