Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x186d…8bfe crypto 897 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-1%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate86%769W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$7
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.4% -15.3% 90% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 236 -0.9% -10.3% 95% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 889 -4.2% -13.3% 86% 11% -11.1%
all 897 -4.2% -13.3% 86% 11% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 11% -11.1%
10% -21.6% 7% -19.6%
15% -29.2% 5% -27.4%
20% -36.1% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses769 / 128
Open positions0
Markets (closed)897 / 897
History coverage91d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 897 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1903 history records