Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
18 0x186e…da9a other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$87 (+7%) realized +$107 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$48
sports 41% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 67% +10.5%
≤30d 3 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 67% +10.5%
≤90d 3 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 67% +10.5%
all 5 +8.7% -1.7% 80% 40% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 40% -2.3%
10% -11.1% 20% -11.7%
15% -19.7% 20% -20.2%
20% -27.6% 0% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$10 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.71 per $1 lost it wins $10.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$107
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage94d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$10 -31%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $48 +$8 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $80 +$36 +46%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $522 +$33 +6%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Mar 15 $496 +$26 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 45m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 21¢ $57 45m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 45m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $48 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $80 25h
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $555 94d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 94¢ $522 94d
Will RCD Mallorca vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $522 94d
Will RCD Mallorca vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $496 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 12 history records