Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x1871…59e6 other 895 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,068 (-2%) realized −$2,081 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%500W / 392L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$250
7 days−$46
14 days−$133
30 days−$650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$1,591
sports 10% −$588
world 4% −$971
politics 4% −$517
crypto 1% −$10
culture 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -7.0% -15.9% 62% 55% -6.0%
≤30d 138 -8.1% -16.8% 59% 56% -14.4%
≤90d 640 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 52% -12.6%
all 892 -3.4% -12.6% 56% 52% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 52% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 44% -20.5%
15% -28.6% 33% -28.1%
20% -35.6% 23% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$86 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$2,081
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses500 / 392
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions3
Markets (closed)892 / 895
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$134
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 892 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $168 $169 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $19 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $24 +$16 +64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $233 +$143 +62%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$39 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $75 +$25 +33%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $132 +$18 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $244 +$106 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $33 +$7 +22%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $38 +$12 +33%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$12 +47%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $202 +$27 +14%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 +$8 +37%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$15 +43%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$25 +43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $196 −$196 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $34 +$16 +47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 −$4 -34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $179 +$3 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $36 +$13 +38%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $82 −$8 -10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $436 −$170 -39%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +54%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $72 −$15 -20%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $373 +$22 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $63 +$37 +59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $355 +$33 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$26 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $110 +$38 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $38 +$12 +33%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $40 +$10 +24%
Netherlands vs. Poland: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $12 +$27 +223%
France vs. Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $175 −$2 -1%
Latvia vs. Slovakia: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $31 +$19 +61%
Will Ireland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Sweden vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $18 +$22 +120%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7 +$12 +177%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 +$8 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $17 +$3 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $168 15m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $376 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $132 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $24 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $75 6h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $44 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $156 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 26h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 28h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $15 28h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $24 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $38 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 92¢ $229 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.80 · official $229.80 (match) · 3500 history records