Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
18 0x1874…38f5 crypto 660 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,562 (-12%) realized −$7,476 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate86%560W / 94L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$6,077
other 6% −$272
tech 4% −$159
sports 3% −$1,146
finance 0% −$8
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +115.3% +94.8% 60% 60% -22.3%
≤30d 15 +115.3% +94.8% 60% 60% -22.3%
≤90d 15 +115.3% +94.8% 60% 60% -22.3%
all 654 -4.1% -13.2% 86% 6% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 6% -20.3%
10% -21.5% 2% -28.0%
15% -29.1% 2% -34.9%
20% -36.1% 2% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$120 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,476
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses560 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)654 / 660
History coverage212d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 654 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs OpTic Texas 34¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner OpTic Texas 51¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 1 Winner OpTic Texas 40¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 79¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 3 Winner OpTic Texas 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs FaZe Vegas 54¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 4 Winner Jun 28 $8 −$7 -99%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $25 +$15 +59%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $15 +$4 +26%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $17 +$12 +72%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $64 −$63 -98%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League St Jun 27 $30 +$6 +20%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $34 +$15 +44%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $20 +$5 +23%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $25 +$18 +73%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 3 Winner Jun 27 $35 −$35 -99%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 27 $35 +$13 +36%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 27 $25 +$5 +21%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $37 −$7 -19%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $21 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23? Mar 19 $100 −$2 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 18 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 18 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 18 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 18 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 18 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$2 -50%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 7PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 6PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 7PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 6PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 7PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 8PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 8PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 4PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 3 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 49¢ $10 45m
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY OpTic Texas 17¢ $5 46m
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner SELL Los Angeles Thieves 99¢ $14 47m
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 7¢ $1 53m
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY OpTic Texas 53¢ $5 53m
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 53¢ $12 1h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 1 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 23¢ $3 1h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 1 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 48¢ $5 1h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 48¢ $5 1h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 1 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 55¢ $5 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $20 1h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY OpTic Texas 50¢ $10 1h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le SELL Paris Gentle Mates 99¢ $57 1h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le SELL FaZe Vegas 2¢ $1 1h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 8¢ $1 1h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 95¢ $5 1h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 69¢ $5 1h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 69¢ $3 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 69¢ $4 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 68¢ $5 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 62¢ $5 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 48¢ $2 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 48¢ $3 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 57¢ $5 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 62¢ $5 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 62¢ $10 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 4 Winner BUY Paris Gentle Mates 1¢ $1 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 4 Winner BUY Paris Gentle Mates 65¢ $7 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 3 Winner SELL Paris Gentle Mates 99¢ $40 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 3 Winner BUY Paris Gentle Mates 90¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 2620 history records