Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:05:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x1876…1ad5 other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$255 (+4%) realized +$113 · open +$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$5,284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$36
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$136
finance 33% +$40
crypto 13% −$38
tech 8% +$17
culture 2% +$37
sports 1% −$10
weather 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.3% -1.1% 100% 50% -5.1%
≤30d 32 -24.2% -31.4% 41% 16% -6.5%
≤90d 32 -24.2% -31.4% 41% 16% -6.5%
all 35 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 20% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 20% -6.4%
10% -32.9% 11% -15.4%
15% -39.4% 6% -23.5%
20% -45.3% 3% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$5,284
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$142
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions22
Markets (closed)35 / 57
History coverage373d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $992 $1,008 +$16 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $498 $522 +$24 (+5%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 94¢ 96¢ $498 $511 +$13 (+3%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? No 93¢ 97¢ $373 $387 +$14 (+4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? No 69¢ 66¢ $371 $355 −$16 (-4%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 93¢ 95¢ $307 $311 +$4 (+1%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? No 72¢ 93¢ $217 $278 +$61 (+28%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? No 92¢ 94¢ $263 $268 +$5 (+2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No 86¢ 92¢ $198 $213 +$15 (+8%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June? No 90¢ 92¢ $204 $208 +$4 (+2%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 70¢ 90¢ $137 $174 +$37 (+27%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $172 $167 −$5 (-3%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 83¢ 92¢ $125 $138 +$13 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $142 $134 −$8 (-6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 91¢ 85¢ $136 $127 −$9 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $123 $125 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $134 $115 −$19 (-14%)
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $80 $95 +$15 (+19%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 96¢ 87¢ $62 $56 −$6 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $70 $45 −$25 (-36%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $170 in June? No 78¢ 94¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $213 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $245 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 19 $98 +$9 +9%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $194 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $47 +$3 +7%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $195 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $46 +$4 +10%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $109 +$12 +11%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 18 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 18 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $9 $0 -4%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -57%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $326 +$22 +7%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $3 +$1 +30%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $44 +$2 +5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $40 +$3 +8%
League of Legends: Top Esports vs. Anyone's Legend Aug 05 $1 $0 +25%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3600 on August 4 at 5PM ET Aug 04 $1 +$2 +161%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Aug 04 $1 $0 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? BUY No 94¢ $499 1h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? BUY No 72¢ $114 27h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? BUY No 72¢ $100 27h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? BUY No 72¢ $3 27h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $30 2d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $213 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $146 3d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $170 in June? SELL No 86¢ $178 3d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $213 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 3d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? SELL No 92¢ $734 3d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? BUY No 91¢ $367 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $308 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $108 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL No 88¢ $52 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $95 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $85 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $75 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $151 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $142 8d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? BUY No 86¢ $111 8d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? BUY No 68¢ $50 8d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 90¢ $109 8d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $195 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 91¢ $46 8d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $194 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 8d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? BUY No 68¢ $25 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 98¢ $293 8d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? BUY No 94¢ $152 8d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $70 8d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $373 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,283.69 · official $5,283.49 (match) · 149 history records