Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1877…78d7 sports 291 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$369 (-3%) realized −$366 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%120W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$415
7 days−$482
14 days−$538
30 days−$498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$193
world 31% −$18
other 21% −$343
politics 12% +$206
economics 3% −$18
tech 2% −$48
culture 1% +$9
weather 0% −$3
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -29.6% -36.3% 38% 25% -34.3%
≤30d 45 -21.9% -29.4% 44% 29% -27.8%
≤90d 79 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 27% -18.3%
all 290 -4.2% -13.3% 41% 31% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 31% -12.8%
10% -21.6% 26% -21.1%
15% -29.2% 22% -28.7%
20% -36.1% 18% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$366
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses120 / 170
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)290 / 291
History coverage126d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $50 −$22 -45%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $100 −$27 -27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Jun 21 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 21 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 21 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $50 −$15 -30%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 21 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 21 $50 −$16 -32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $50 +$19 +37%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $100 +$34 +34%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $51 −$2 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +41%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 20? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $50 −$27 -53%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $50 −$31 -62%
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $51 +$5 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $50 +$43 +86%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $50 +$29 +59%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $50 +$12 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $50 +$7 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $50 +$9 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $50 −$13 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $50 −$47 -93%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $50 −$28 -56%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $51 +$70 +137%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 04 $51 +$18 +36%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 31 $50 −$46 -91%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $50 +$2 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $50 −$8 -17%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 21 $51 −$26 -52%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $33 −$2 -6%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 15 $51 −$33 -66%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 14 $50 +$69 +138%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $51 +$14 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 BUY Yes 11¢ $50 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $48 1h
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? SELL Yes 90¢ $54 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 1h
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $29 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 76¢ $56 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $50 6h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $2 6h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 6h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 7h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 7h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 22¢ $38 14h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 15h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 15h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 15h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 16h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 19h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 19h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $51 19h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 24h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 25h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 25h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.61 · official $46.61 (match) · 1038 history records