Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:11:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x1878…47a9 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$130 (+4%) realized +$130 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$399
7 days+$399
14 days+$399
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$269
other 32% −$349
politics 7% +$66
weather 2% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 45% +10.6%
≤30d 14 -16.6% -24.6% 36% 36% -8.0%
≤90d 14 -16.6% -24.6% 36% 36% -8.0%
all 15 -13.2% -21.4% 40% 40% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 40% -5.9%
10% -29.0% 40% -14.9%
15% -35.8% 33% -23.1%
20% -42.1% 27% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$89 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage447d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $56 +$108 +194%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $293 +$190 +65%
João Félix: 1+ goals Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $375 −$128 -34%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 23 $135 +$126 +93%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 23 $45 −$45 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 23 $37 −$36 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $315 +$277 +88%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $336 −$21 -6%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 22 $313 +$128 +41%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 06 $158 −$155 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $232 −$16 -7%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 05 $205 −$200 -98%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Apr 04 $190 +$66 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL Yes 97¢ $164 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 32¢ $56 9h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $293 9h
João Félix: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $102 17h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $102 17h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 40¢ $236 17h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 42¢ $212 22h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 42¢ $163 22h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 51¢ $135 22h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY Samsung Lions 48¢ $7 23h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY Samsung Lions 48¢ $7 23h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY Samsung Lions 48¢ $8 23h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY Samsung Lions 48¢ $8 23h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY Samsung Lions 48¢ $8 23h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY Samsung Lions 48¢ $8 23h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 27¢ $12 23h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 26¢ $13 23h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 22¢ $11 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 52¢ $315 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $315 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $336 41h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $19 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $47 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $123 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 57¢ $118 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $123 3d
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos BUY LG Twins 43¢ $158 17d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 32¢ $216 17d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 33¢ $232 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY HANJIN BRION 24¢ $205 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records