Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
18 0x187f…a85b crypto 293 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,382 (+6%) realized +$1,367 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate69%196W / 89L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$613now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$1,928
finance 2% −$500
sports 1% −$8
other 0% −$42
politics 0% −$45
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 19 -0.9% -10.3% 95% 11% -7.9%
≤90d 261 -3.7% -12.9% 72% 28% -2.6%
all 285 -7.0% -15.8% 69% 27% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 27% -3.9%
10% -23.9% 16% -13.1%
15% -31.2% 9% -21.5%
20% -38.0% 5% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$55 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$613
Realized+$1,367
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses196 / 89
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)285 / 293
History coverage92d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $119 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $89 $93 +$4 (+4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 94¢ 95¢ $89 $91 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 87¢ 100¢ $74 $86 +$11 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 93¢ 98¢ $74 $79 +$4 (+6%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 92¢ 84¢ $75 $68 −$7 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 85¢ 85¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 95¢ 95¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $123 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $123 +$6 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $122 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $122 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $122 +$4 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $92 −$91 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $247 +$7 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $193 +$9 +5%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 01 $256 +$8 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $267 +$17 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $228 +$9 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $220 +$5 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $188 +$22 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $238 +$14 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $88 +$4 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $200 +$25 +13%
Will Solana reach $100 May 11-17? May 18 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17? May 18 $97 +$6 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17? May 18 $126 +$5 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 15? May 15 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 11? May 11 $121 +$4 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10? May 11 $90 +$4 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 4-10? May 11 $33 +$5 +16%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 4-10? May 11 $116 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9? May 09 $102 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 07 $129 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 5? May 05 $140 +$5 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 27-May 3? May 04 $53 +$11 +20%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $126 +$6 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $130 +$8 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 1? May 01 $30 +$1 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in April? May 01 $209 −$107 -51%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 01 $56 +$3 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? May 01 $68 +$5 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $42 +$4 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 01 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? May 01 $47 +$6 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 01 $109 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 01 $84 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $72 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 01 $68 +$8 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $89 +$40 +45%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 01 $81 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $78 +$3 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? May 01 $44 +$25 +57%
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? May 01 $54 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 85¢ $45 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $75 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $32 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 94¢ $90 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 97¢ $120 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $75 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $89 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY No 87¢ $75 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 97¢ $123 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 97¢ $17 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 96¢ $122 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $2 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 97¢ $122 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 97¢ $98 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $122 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? BUY No 88¢ $92 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? BUY No 95¢ $123 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $88 30d
Will Solana reach $100 May 11-17? BUY No 82¢ $30 41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17? BUY No 96¢ $126 43d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 11? BUY No 97¢ $121 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17? BUY No 94¢ $97 43d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 15? BUY No 97¢ $24 43d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10? BUY No 95¢ $9 47d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 4-10? BUY No 96¢ $114 47d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10? BUY No 95¢ $5 47d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 4-10? BUY No 96¢ $1 47d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10? BUY No 95¢ $76 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? BUY No 97¢ $128 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 5? BUY No 97¢ $77 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $612.55 · official $612.55 (match) · 1337 history records