Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:47:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x187f…3a3f crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+4%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$17
other 15% +$11
sports 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +19.8% +8.4% 50% 50% -9.7%
≤30d 24 +19.8% +8.4% 50% 50% -9.7%
≤90d 24 +19.8% +8.4% 50% 50% -9.7%
all 24 +19.8% +8.4% 50% 50% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.4% 50% -9.7%
10% -2.0% 50% -18.4%
15% -11.5% 46% -26.2%
20% -20.2% 38% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +306%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$10 +86%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 9h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 10h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 13h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $21 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 34h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records