Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
18 0x1880…4a03 other 584 markets active 21h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$94 (+6%) realized +$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%228W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$15
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$26
sports 15% +$100
world 4% −$27
crypto 2% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -30.9% -37.5% 25% 25% -31.9%
≤30d 101 +2.2% -7.6% 31% 31% -4.4%
≤90d 560 -2.3% -11.6% 37% 37% -8.0%
all 584 +0.4% -9.2% 39% 39% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 39% -5.2%
10% -17.9% 38% -14.3%
15% -25.8% 38% -22.6%
20% -33.1% 35% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses228 / 356
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)584 / 584
History coverage141d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 584 Trades
no open positions (276 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +206%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$8 +238%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -46%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 +$4 +150%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$5 +206%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$3 +123%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 +$4 +152%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 +$6 +120%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $3 +$3 +119%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 +$8 +81%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $2 −$1 -92%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $2 −$1 -98%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $2 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. Gambia end in a draw? May 29 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Gambia win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $2 +$2 +161%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 21h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 43¢ $3 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6d
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 9d
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 10d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 10d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 11d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 11d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 11d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 11d
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 11d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 964 history records