trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -11.5% | -20.0% | 23% | 8% | -11.3% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -10.7% | -19.2% | 21% | 7% | -11.1% |
| all | 26 | -5.8% | -14.8% | 38% | 4% | -10.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.8% | 4% | -10.9% |
| 10% | -22.9% | 4% | -19.5% |
| 15% | -30.4% | 0% | -27.2% |
| 20% | -37.2% | 0% | -34.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 59¢ | 86¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+45%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 18 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 27 | $24 | −$17 | -73% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 24 | $14 | −$8 | -56% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 24 | $52 | +$2 | +4% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 23 | $88 | +$2 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 21 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 21 | $63 | −$5 | -7% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 20 | $37 | +$9 | +24% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | May 20 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | May 19 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 27 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | May 24 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? | Apr 15 | $8 | −$1 | -12% |
| Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania | Apr 14 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? | Apr 13 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? | Apr 12 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Apr 11 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 betwe | Apr 09 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? | Apr 08 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 22 | $10 | $0 | +0% |