Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1884…b7a5 sports 624 markets active 4d ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$538 (+1%) realized +$538 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%362W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$468est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$709
14 days−$353
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -3.0% -12.2% 57% 54% +7.6%
≤30d 269 -8.7% -17.4% 56% 54% -9.9%
≤90d 624 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 55% -8.9%
all 624 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 55% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 55% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 46% -17.7%
15% -27.5% 34% -25.6%
20% -34.7% 24% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$50 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$538
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses362 / 262
Est. fees paid−$468
Open positions0
Markets (closed)624 / 624
History coverage72d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 624 Trades
no open positions (117 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $153 +$353 +231%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $152 +$115 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $151 +$111 +73%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $101 +$65 +65%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $144 +$50 +35%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $152 −$10 -7%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $86 −$51 -60%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $202 +$8 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $101 +$28 +27%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $97 +$36 +37%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $252 +$127 +50%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $101 −$26 -26%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $50 +$18 +36%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $152 +$134 +89%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $203 −$92 -45%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $251 +$64 +26%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $153 +$64 +42%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $51 +$31 +62%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $110 +$19 +17%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $202 +$79 +39%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $101 +$92 +91%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $152 −$150 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $202 +$399 +197%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $201 +$21 +10%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $201 −$200 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $201 +$49 +24%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $101 +$32 +32%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $151 −$150 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $201 +$62 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 68¢ $30 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 68¢ $21 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 70¢ $50 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 22¢ $51 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 28¢ $51 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 50¢ $51 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 45¢ $51 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 57¢ $33 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 57¢ $17 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 61¢ $51 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 25¢ $1 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 25¢ $0 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 25¢ $25 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 25¢ $2 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 25¢ $0 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 25¢ $6 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 74¢ $50 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 62¢ $51 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 53¢ $51 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 49¢ $33 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 49¢ $17 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 65¢ $34 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 65¢ $16 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $51 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 81¢ $50 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 53¢ $51 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 83¢ $18 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 83¢ $5 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 83¢ $21 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 66¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2160 history records