trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -43.0% | -48.4% | 50% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -18.8% | -26.5% | 40% | 20% | -3.6% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +10.5% | -0.0% | 60% | 53% | -4.7% |
| all | 15 | +10.5% | -0.0% | 60% | 53% | -4.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -0.0% | 53% | -4.7% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -9.6% | 40% | -13.8% |
| 15% | -18.3% | 33% | -22.1% |
| 20% | -26.3% | 33% | -29.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | No | 79¢ | 76¢ | $2,728 | $2,644 | −$84 (-3%) |
| Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 56¢ | $1,000 | $1,046 | +$46 (+5%) |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | $650 | $645 | −$5 (-1%) |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 27¢ | 30¢ | $200 | $215 | +$15 (+8%) |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | Yes | 48¢ | 26¢ | $76 | $40 | −$36 (-47%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | $60 | $39 | −$21 (-35%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 6¢ | $16 | $29 | +$12 (+74%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $16 | $14 | −$2 (-12%) |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $13 | −$17 (-55%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 25 | $92 | −$79 | -87% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 22 | $23,978 | +$150 | +1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 15 | $110 | −$69 | -63% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 15 | $3,535 | +$1,980 | +56% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 11 | $1,955 | −$25 | -1% |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $233 | −$10 | -4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 23 | $47 | +$31 | +67% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | May 01 | $328 | +$71 | +22% |
| Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? | Apr 17 | $561 | −$561 | -100% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Apr 17 | $45 | +$33 | +73% |
| Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? | Apr 16 | $161 | +$102 | +63% |
| Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? | Apr 16 | $32 | +$28 | +89% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Apr 15 | $114 | −$3 | -3% |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | Apr 14 | $87 | +$26 | +30% |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Apr 09 | $25 | +$3 | +14% |