Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x1890…20eb world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,662 (+5%) realized +$1,752 · open −$90
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,508per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$4,686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days+$71
14 days+$1,982
30 days+$1,957
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% +$1,684
finance 0% −$69
other 0% −$39
crypto 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -43.0% -48.4% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 -18.8% -26.5% 40% 20% -3.6%
≤90d 15 +10.5% -0.0% 60% 53% -4.7%
all 15 +10.5% -0.0% 60% 53% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.0% 53% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 40% -13.8%
15% -18.3% 33% -22.1%
20% -26.3% 33% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$125 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$4,686
Realized+$1,752
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)15 / 24
History coverage78d
Avg bet$1,508
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? No 79¢ 76¢ $2,728 $2,644 −$84 (-3%)
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $1,000 $1,046 +$46 (+5%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $650 $645 −$5 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $200 $215 +$15 (+8%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 48¢ 26¢ $76 $40 −$36 (-47%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $39 −$21 (-35%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $29 +$12 (+74%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $13 −$17 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $92 −$79 -87%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $23,978 +$150 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $110 −$69 -63%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $3,535 +$1,980 +56%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $1,955 −$25 -1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 25 $233 −$10 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $47 +$31 +67%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 01 $328 +$71 +22%
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $561 −$561 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 17 $45 +$33 +73%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $161 +$102 +63%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $32 +$28 +89%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 15 $114 −$3 -3%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $87 +$26 +30%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 09 $25 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $400 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 62¢ $650 7h
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,000 12h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 77¢ $300 15h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 80¢ $1,000 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $12 22h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 80¢ $228 24h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 80¢ $788 28h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 72¢ $11 46h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 72¢ $1 46h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 80¢ $12 2d
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 72¢ $174 2d
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 48¢ $200 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $4 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $82 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $6 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $167 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $70 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $30 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $50 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $50 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $200 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $100 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $686 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $1,709 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $2,700 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $1,000 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $175 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $17 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $17 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,686.42 · official $4,686.61 (match) · 239 history records