Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1892…1b4c
weather · 425 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$373 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$351 · open −$31
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$186
Realized−$351
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses338 / 79
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)417 / 425
History coverage142d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 8 History 417 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$14
14 days+$31
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 16? No 97¢ 95¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 93¢ 34¢ $50 $18 −$32 (-63%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Yes 64¢ 41¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? No 7¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $137 $0 −$137 (-100%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 17? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 25? No 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 5? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 71°F or below on May 17? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $135 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $40 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $115 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on June 1? Jun 02 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% −$415
weather 45% −$6
tech 5% −$47
other 2% −$12
politics 1% +$3
finance 1% +$11
culture 1% +$15
crypto 0% −$2
sports 0% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 14% -7.8%
≤30d 156 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 9% -8.8%
≤90d 405 -4.2% -13.3% 82% 21% -11.3%
all 417 -2.7% -12.0% 81% 22% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 22% -11.3%
10% -20.4% 6% -19.8%
15% -28.1% 5% -27.5%
20% -35.1% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.57 · official $185.57 (match) · 1209 history records