Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1895…47e7 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$66
sports 9% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 41% -16.6%
≤30d 22 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 41% -16.6%
≤90d 22 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 41% -16.6%
all 22 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 41% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 41% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 32% -24.6%
15% -37.3% 23% -31.8%
20% -43.4% 18% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$23 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$21 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$5 -9%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $56 +$20 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $24 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $45 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records