Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1897…7438 crypto 467 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,486 (-8%) realized −$14,540 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate55%281W / 227L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$281
7 days−$1,267
14 days−$957
30 days−$846
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 90% −$14,440
crypto 10% −$875
other 0% +$81
culture 0% +$60
world 0% $0
weather 0% −$10
economics 0% +$124
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -94.7% -95.2% 2% 2% -32.6%
≤30d 59 -71.0% -73.8% 20% 5% -11.8%
≤90d 100 -44.3% -49.6% 37% 15% -11.0%
all 508 -13.6% -21.9% 55% 29% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 29% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 24% -25.7%
15% -36.2% 19% -32.9%
20% -42.4% 14% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$129 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$1,112
Realized−$14,540
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses281 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)508 / 467
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$370
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 508 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? Up 81¢ 86¢ $1,058 $1,112 +$54 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 183 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 10? Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11? Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $1,998 +$212 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $893 −$264 -30%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $1,464 −$722 -49%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $541 +$40 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $2,318 +$77 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $206 +$14 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2,453 +$179 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,911 −$260 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 78¢ $380 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 80¢ $156 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 82¢ $83 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 84¢ $85 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 85¢ $170 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 86¢ $173 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 20¢ $111 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 31¢ $43 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 31¢ $26 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 55¢ $55 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 52¢ $53 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 52¢ $53 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 50¢ $51 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 50¢ $51 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 50¢ $51 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 51¢ $104 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 55¢ $227 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 65¢ $14 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 65¢ $132 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 65¢ $124 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 65¢ $7 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 41¢ $90 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 44¢ $4 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 61¢ $122 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 61¢ $22 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 92¢ $1,102 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 92¢ $2 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 95¢ $8 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,111.50 · official $1,111.50 (match) · 3500 history records