Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x189a…ec5f
sports · 328 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$10 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$112
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses163 / 140
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions25
Markets (closed)303 / 328
History coverage538d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 25 History 303 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$62
14 days−$5
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 61¢ 86¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+39%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 54¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 68¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 32¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 79¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 30¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage Rune Eaters 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 32¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 66¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Atlanta Dream 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage INOX Division 50¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Ursa 44¢ 44¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 49¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$3 +45%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +49%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$1 -24%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $6 +$1 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$7 +108%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 +$24 +388%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $6 +$10 +169%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $12 +$2 +15%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Raducanu vs. Rakhimova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $6 +$4 +65%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $4 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $6 −$5 -90%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$16 +348%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +27%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $3 +$2 +48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$2 -30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 $0 -22%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$4 +104%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +118%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 86% −$20
other 13% −$29
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% +$10
culture 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Vitality 100¢ $4 17m
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Vitality 100¢ $5 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $2 53m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $4 53m
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 14¢ $1 56m
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 14¢ $0 56m
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 14¢ $0 56m
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 14¢ $0 56m
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 14¢ $0 56m
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 14¢ $0 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 63¢ $3 1h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $3 1h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Jesper de Jong 97¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 70¢ $3 1h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Jesper de Jong 79¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $2 2h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 67¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 78¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $1 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 71¢ $4 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +14.9% +3.9% 59% 56% +13.8%
≤30d 278 -1.0% -10.4% 55% 54% -8.4%
≤90d 282 -1.8% -11.1% 55% 53% -11.4%
all 303 -1.4% -10.8% 54% 50% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 50% -10.1%
10% -19.3% 47% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 36% -26.5%
20% -34.3% 25% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.88 · official $111.88 (match) · 860 history records