Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x189a…05e3 crypto 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (146 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$575 (+4%) realized +$575 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%49W / 46L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day146.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,466
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (146 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +11.1% +0.5% 52% 49% +1.4%
≤30d 95 +11.1% +0.5% 52% 49% +1.4%
≤90d 95 +11.1% +0.5% 52% 49% +1.4%
all 95 +11.1% +0.5% 52% 49% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover146.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 49% +1.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 43% -8.3%
15% -17.9% 40% -17.1%
20% -25.9% 38% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$116 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$575
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses49 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage6d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day146.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $228 −$179 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $192 +$208 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $89 +$111 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $285 +$315 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $86 +$98 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $170 −$165 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $387 −$383 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $67 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $99 +$101 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $156 +$244 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $317 +$483 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $663 −$661 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $441 +$259 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $181 +$119 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $130 −$17 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $292 +$308 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $199 +$101 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $149 −$147 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $344 +$456 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $177 −$174 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $110 +$90 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $44 +$56 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $220 −$217 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $38 −$37 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$172 +603%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $127 +$573 +451%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $343 −$341 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $199 +$213 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $89 +$111 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $109 +$91 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $129 +$24 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$66 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $267 +$33 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $85 +$15 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $43 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $68 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $12 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $22 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $12 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $12 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 882 history records