Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x189b…8a84 crypto 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 354d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-26%) realized −$74 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%38W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$23
sports 37% −$15
other 7% −$13
politics 3% −$3
world 2% −$2
tech 1% +$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +35.5% +22.6% 40% 40% +70.1%
≤30d 5 +35.5% +22.6% 40% 40% +70.1%
≤90d 5 +35.5% +22.6% 40% 40% +70.1%
all 109 -26.6% -33.6% 35% 31% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 31% -25.7%
10% -40.0% 29% -32.8%
15% -45.8% 26% -39.3%
20% -51.1% 21% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

354d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses38 / 71
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)109 / 112
History coverage354d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 45¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes 31¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$18 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$12 +117%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $1 +$1 +67%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $1 +$1 +126%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jan 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $2 +$5 +249%
US forces enter Iran by January 31? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Mainstream" during the next White House press briefi Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 11 $1 +$5 +508%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Packers vs. Vikings Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 04 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 04 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 04 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 04 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 04 $8 −$1 -7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 04 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 04 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 7PM ET Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 5PM ET Jan 03 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 03 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 03 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 03 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 03 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 02 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 02 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 02 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 02 $2 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $18 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $6 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $22 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 42¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 105d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 126d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 140d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 140d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 140d
US forces enter Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 154d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 154d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 154d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 154d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 154d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 154d
Will Leavitt say "Mainstream" during the next White House press briefi BUY Yes 49¢ $1 154d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 154d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 79¢ $6 155d
Packers vs. Bears BUY Packers 72¢ $20 155d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 155d
US strike on Mexico by January 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 155d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 155d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 155d
Packers vs. Vikings BUY Packers 17¢ $4 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.77 · official $0.77 (match) · 269 history records