Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x189c…ca58 weather 277 markets active 2d ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-4%) realized −$57 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate80%206W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$17
14 days−$16
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 33% −$5
politics 28% −$17
other 17% −$85
sports 15% +$46
world 4% $0
crypto 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +1.0% -8.6% 41% 41% -22.2%
≤30d 27 -3.8% -13.0% 44% 41% -15.1%
≤90d 256 -2.5% -11.8% 80% 16% -14.2%
all 256 -2.5% -11.8% 80% 16% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 16% -14.2%
10% -20.2% 13% -22.4%
15% -27.9% 12% -29.9%
20% -35.0% 11% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses206 / 50
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions21
Markets (closed)256 / 277
History coverage77d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 56¢ 98¢ $31 $54 +$23 (+75%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 50¢ 67¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+34%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 74¢ 87¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+18%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 61¢ 59¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 91¢ 84¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? No 94¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 67¢ 56¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-24%)
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 84¢ 76¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 31¢ 35¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-32%)
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 22¢ 29¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $12 +$6 +52%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +273%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +137%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $12 +$16 +126%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? Jun 09 $4 +$4 +107%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Jun 02 $4 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $12 +$7 +59%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $12 +$23 +195%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president May 17 $2 $0 +25%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2 May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 May 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $12 +$8 +63%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $8 +$5 +67%
Spread: FK Zenit (-1.5) May 02 $12 +$25 +200%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $12 +$17 +140%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Apr 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 23 $12 +$5 +40%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $12 +$8 +71%
Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on April 21? Apr 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 19 $12 +$2 +19%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 37h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $2 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $2 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $2 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $2 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $2 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 37¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 37¢ $10 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 39¢ $12 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $2 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 4d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $3 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.86 · official $218.27 (match) · 1470 history records