Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
18 0x189e…38f4 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%3W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$2
politics 22% −$1
world 22% −$1
sports 14% $0
finance 7% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 +5.6% -4.5% 12% 12% -9.4%
≤90d 13 +3.3% -6.5% 8% 8% -9.5%
all 52 +0.7% -8.9% 6% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×10.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses3 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage237d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 29 $173 $0 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 29 $76 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Jun 29 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 29 $175 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 29 $522 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $341 $0 -0%
Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 07 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 26 $7 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $7 $0 -1%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Apr 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $495 −$1 -0%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 04 $70 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $167 $0 -0%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $397 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 04 $210 $0 -0%
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 04 $356 $0 -0%
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Mar 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.10 February 23-March 1? Feb 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 22 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Feb 22 $286 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $67 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $371 $0 -0%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get at least 15 Feb 13 $6 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Jan 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Rastriya Janamorcha win the most seats in the Nepal House of Repr Jan 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 12 $6 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 29 $97 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Dec 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $17 $0 -0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Dec 29 $111 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Tinoco de Faria win the 2026 Portugal presidential election Dec 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 20 $8 $0 -0%
GTA VI released in 2025? Dec 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 09 $30 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 08 $29 $0 -0%
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? Dec 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 04 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 18 $4 $0 -1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 16 $5 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 14 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $173 1h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $76 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? SELL No 98¢ $499 1h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 99¢ $175 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $173 1h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $175 1h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $404 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL No 98¢ $522 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $341 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $95 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $522 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $341 2h
Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $9 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 25d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $7 34d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $7 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 50d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $7 50d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $7 75d
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $8 75d
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $8 75d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $7 75d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $7 79d
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 97¢ $6 99d
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $6 100d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $7 108d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records