Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
18 0x189e…5aae sports 377 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (273 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$818 (+8%) realized +$885 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%207W / 164L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day273.3pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$741
other 3% −$32
world 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (273 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 371 +15.9% +4.8% 56% 54% -2.0%
≤30d 371 +15.9% +4.8% 56% 54% -2.0%
≤90d 371 +15.9% +4.8% 56% 54% -2.0%
all 371 +15.9% +4.8% 56% 54% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover273.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 54% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -5.2% 50% -11.4%
15% -14.4% 44% -19.9%
20% -22.8% 37% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$885
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses207 / 164
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions6
Markets (closed)371 / 377
History coverage3d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day273.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Tarvisio: Gabriela Ce vs Pia Lovric Gabriela Ce 52¢ 66¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+28%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Over 67¢ 74¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+11%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 57¢ 65¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+14%)
ITF Palma Del Rio: Vaishnavi Adkar vs Han Shi Vaishnavi Adkar 41¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-23? No 69¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will América FC win on 2026-06-23? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $38 +$228 +596%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $40 +$22 +56%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $39 +$15 +37%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $40 +$11 +27%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $39 +$19 +48%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 24 $150 −$149 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $35 +$85 +247%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $39 +$27 +67%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $15 +$14 +96%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $37 +$24 +67%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $25 +$6 +24%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $96 −$41 -42%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $26 +$34 +130%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$21 +109%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $26 +$32 +121%
ITF Rome, USA: Bella Payne vs Christasha McNeil Jun 23 $43 +$41 +94%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $92 −$91 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $17 +$69 +400%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva Jun 23 $85 +$18 +21%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $25 +$18 +72%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $86 +$19 +22%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 23 $53 +$39 +73%
Map Handicap: JL (-1.5) vs CGN Esports (+1.5) Jun 23 $2 +$3 +127%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $75 +$55 +73%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $22 +$16 +76%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $23 +$8 +36%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $3 +$2 +92%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $11 +$5 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $21 +$18 +82%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $8 +$2 +29%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $8 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $20 +$9 +49%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $52 +$53 +101%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $22 −$22 -99%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $27 −$27 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $13 −$3 -22%
ITF Asuncion: Romina Ccuno vs Victoria Lopez Ocampos Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Bergamo: Federico Arnaboldi vs Niccolo Ciavarella Jun 23 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $14 +$4 +28%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? Jun 23 $40 −$40 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 67¢ $17 9m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $14 9m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 14¢ $38 52m
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 75¢ $21 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 73¢ $39 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $40 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $41 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 59¢ $40 1h
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 69¢ $27 1h
Will América FC win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 67¢ $39 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 60¢ $30 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 60¢ $29 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 60¢ $39 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 60¢ $18 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 59¢ $14 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $40 2h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 73¢ $15 2h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Vaishnavi Adkar vs Han Shi BUY Vaishnavi Adkar 43¢ $3 2h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Vaishnavi Adkar vs Han Shi BUY Vaishnavi Adkar 41¢ $40 2h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 59¢ $39 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 29¢ $4 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 25¢ $2 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 12¢ $29 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $12 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $5 3h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 68¢ $6 3h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 68¢ $4 3h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.00 · official $64.00 (match) · 1118 history records